Archive for the ‘Real Estate’ Category

Nothing is Simple

October 13, 2010

“Where theories of even the greatest scientists… have experienced a cycle of acceptance, revision, diminution, and sometimes complete dismissal, [the new science of Enhanced Human Perception™] has set a cornerstone toward development of one seamless set of essential truths expressible philosophically, through abstract artworks, and in fully tangible fruits of [Noetitek™] technology and its intelligence-augmenting meta-tools and devices. That set of core truths will prove to be the bedrock for all future science.” (Extract from Text of 2010 Speech posted under Important Information). 

Science, as it has been known since Descartes, approaches problems with a prescribed mindset, perceptual framework, and intellectually harmonious methodology. Usefulness of that approach is apparent when one compares the world of 400 years ago to today. At the foundation of the framework is the sense that some things are simple and others are varied degrees of “complex.” Because time-bound mortal creatures tend to see things in terms of threes—as having a beginning, middle, and end, a “this, that, and the other”—it is not surprising to see problems divided into three conceptual categories: (1) simplicity, (2) organized complexity, and (3) disorganized complexity. 

A problem deemed “simple” has as few as two perceived variables and usually no more than four. By extreme comparison, a problem perceived as “disorganized and complex” is one having so many variables that attempting to number and identify them, or begin to grasp their random interaction, would be futile. A problem that is “complex, yet organized” is perceivable as organic—as having identifiable parts and a wholeness. Problems evidencing simplicity are seen as solvable with a high degree of perceived accuracy and certainty. Problems evidencing disorganized complexity are seen as unsolvable except in terms of statistical probability, assessments of which will vary from one brain to another. For lack of a reliable Cartesian-based methodology, problems evidencing organized complexity are generally swept into one of the two extreme categories, or treated as an oxymoronic hybrid: “simple disorganized complexity!” 

The following illustrates just how crippled such conceptualizing can be and how disastrous the effects: Home-sellers, buyers, and mortgage lenders seek to know the value, in dollars, of a given residence at a given point in time. On what does the value depend? Pose this seemingly straight-forward question to: realtors, insurance agents, tax assessors, independent appraisers, financial advisors, homeowners, home-shoppers, and passers-by on the sidewalk. In almost every case the question will—without conscious intention—be treated as one of “simple disorganized complexity,” some variation of a combination of factors that they work with on a daily basis together with acknowledgement that many factors exist beyond their ken. Now, show them a specific house and ask them to value it. It would be rare for any of those numbers to match. 

If you press for an explanation of how any of the above parties value a house, what you are likely to hear are further statements evidencing thoughts that reflect “simple disorganized complexity.” On the one hand, you will hear some variation of: “It’s worth whatever someone will pay for it” (a special case variation of the popular non-comment: “It is what it is”). On the other, you will hear, from the same party, something like: “There are too many variables to make a definitive objective valuation.” You might also hear someone’s personal or professional Rule of Thumb or be referred to a training manual for appraisers, but none of that jazz will break through the buttressed perceptual barrier of: “simple disorganized complexity” to reach a non-statistics-driven organized complexity.

Confusion of this nature has run rampant for so long that few people realize how confused (hypnotized by habitual thinking) they are. Yet, as difficult as it seems to treat the home-valuation question and uncounted others as a matter of “organized complexity”—the true nature of Omniverse, wherein nothing is simple or truly disorganized—PluribusOne™ has broken ground in this direction by formulating a sensible approach to property valuation. It is of extreme importance to the overall state of the economy, and the well-being of citizens, that such confusion be reconciled not only in the area of real estate investment but many other areas as well. Meanwhile, it is not surprising to see intelligent would-be homeowners consider house-buying the same way they consider buying stock on Wall Street or tossing dice in Vegas—a gamble.